Adrian Morrison 1-month paid-trial iCAC & LTV model (xlsx)#29
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johnkalis wants to merge 4 commits into
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Adrian Morrison 1-month paid-trial iCAC & LTV model (xlsx)#29johnkalis wants to merge 4 commits into
johnkalis wants to merge 4 commits into
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Live-formula xlsx comparing current 3-mo paid trial ($90/paid trial) to a 1-mo trial paid per full-price conversion at $250/$300/$350, plus a 12,000 paid-trial stretch volume. iCAC = payout x CVR / IAF (validated against the prior US rate-scenarios deck). LTV per FP shop is a single input cell wired to shopify-dw.marketing.shop_ltv_mart_predictions_with_forecast; LTV and LTV:CAC rows recompute once it is filled. Co-authored-by: johnkalis <johnkalis@users.noreply.github.com>
…logy Incorporates River's pull from shop_ltv_mart_predictions_with_forecast (US / Affiliates): 1-mo era LTV $93.35/$130.12/$164.51 and 3-mo era $74.87/$128.52/n.a. at 12/24/36mo. Rebuilds workbook with Assumptions (inputs + sources), Scenarios (current + 3 payouts x 2 volumes: iGA, spend, iCAC, iCAC vs $267, LTV@12/24/36, LTV:CAC, net contribution) and an IAF sensitivity tab (0.38/0.60/0.75). Verified: iCAC $322/$387/$451, LTV:CAC@36mo 0.66/0.55/0.47. Co-authored-by: johnkalis <johnkalis@users.noreply.github.com>
…vity + breakeven) Addresses lead feedback that LTV may drop with a 1-month trial (marginal- converter dilution). Adds an adjustable 'LTV realization factor' (Assumptions B19, default 100%) applied to go-forward 1-mo-era LTV, a new LTV sensitivity tab (LTV:CAC & net contribution across 130%->60% of observed) and a breakeven block (breakeven LTV = payout; $350 needs ~2.13x observed LTV). Conclusion is robust across the full haircut range. Co-authored-by: johnkalis <johnkalis@users.noreply.github.com>
Per-region rate card for Adrian Morrison (21 markets) with editable discount lever (default 25%) applied to the March rate. iCAC/LTV:CAC/net columns use US CVR/IAF/LTV as placeholders for non-US rows (flagged) pending market data. Co-authored-by: johnkalis <johnkalis@users.noreply.github.com>
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Summary
Google Sheets-ready
.xlsxmodeling Adrian Morrison's affiliate economics for the switch from a 3-month paid trial ($90 / paid trial, ~31% conversion) to a 1-month paid trial paid per full-price conversion (~49%), across payouts of $250 / $300 / $350 and at base (8,900) / stretch (12,000) monthly paid-trial volumes — plus an all-markets rate card.LTV is real warehouse data (from
shopify-dw.marketing.shop_ltv_mart_predictions_with_forecast, US /payback_channel_group = 'Affiliates').analysis/adrian-morrison/adrian_morrison_1mo_trial_icac_ltv.xlsxanalysis/adrian-morrison/build_workbook.pyTabs
Headline results (US, verified)
LTV inputs (per FP shop): 1-mo era $93.35/$130.12/$164.51; 3-mo era $74.87/$128.52/n.a. @12/24/36mo.
Rate logic (US)
Note
affiliate-forecast/marketing-data-mcparen't reachable from the cloud agent VM (desktop-scoped); LTV came from a manual warehouse pull. Non-US per-market LTV/CVR are placeholders pending data.